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ATPF Preview Week 12

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A big weekend for some of the top teams in week eleven saw the Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks and Saints all enhance their claims while the Chiefs tasted defeat for the first time and powerhouses New England and San Francisco were also beaten.

We went 10-5 on the week moving our record to 90-55 on the season. We were spot on when predicting the Colts would win by three and with the Broncos to win by ten. We had the Eagles winning by seven (won by eight), Seahawks by 20 (won by 21), Cardinals by 14 (won by 13) and Panthers by three (won by four) as well so it was a pretty good week for us.

Week 12 sees a lot of apparent mismatches but complacency is dangerous in the NFL, especially at this time of the season. There will be upsets of course and there are several teams who are on the verge of elimination from playoff contention also so it is an important week nonetheless.

 

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

The Saints upset the Falcons in week one, hard to believe it was considered an upset now considering the Saints are 8-2 and Atlanta at the other end of the scale are 2-8.

The Saints weren’t at their best and gifted the 49ers a short field touchdown last week yet still got the win. Although the margin was just three the Saints very much looked the superior team. The Panthers are going from strength to strength but the Saints still lead the NFC South and must keep winning to preserve the advantage. Behind Rob Ryan’s vastly improved fourth ranked defense the Saints look Superbowl contenders again with Drew Brees and Sean Payton always able to conjure up yards and points aplenty.

Atlanta came so close to going to the Superbowl a year ago and having been so strong in the last five years there were many who believed they could go one better this year but from their inability to punch in a game winning score against the Saints way back in September little has gone right. Injuries have decimated their skill players and have constantly nagged their defense also but that unit simply hasn’t been good enough. The best teams are able to win when one unit is struggling for form or due to injuries but when the Falcons needed their defense they didn’t step up.

On the face of it this should be a formality but the Falcons just give that sense that somewhere they will find a bit of form and give a playoff team a real game. Beating their bitter rivals would give the Falcons fans something to shout about at last. This game could go one of two ways, either the Saints control it, force turnovers and stroll it or Atlanta get a good start, build some confidence and make a real game of it, we have a feeling it will be the latter.

ATPF PredictionSaints outlast a resurgent Falcons team to win by seven.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

The final wild card spot in the AFC is very much up for grabs and both of these 4-6 teams know that a win here will put them right in the mix.

Pittsburgh have been pretty good since their bye, the Patriots exposed them but otherwise they’ve been pretty good and beat a very good Detroit Lions team latest. A more balanced offense coupled with a defense which is finally creating turnovers has many believing they can string together wins and have a real go at this final wildcard spot. Ben Roethlisberger is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league and had his best game of 2013 last Sunday so things are certainly looking up in Pittsburgh.

Cleveland have been on the edge of the wildcard race all year but a thumping in Cincinnati last week could dent their confidence ahead of what is an absolutely huge game for them here. The Browns fifth ranked defense can make life hard for anyone but when the offense commits four turnovers as last week they are rendered useless. Cleveland have a couple of talented up and coming receivers in Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron but with no running game of note and pedestrian quarterbacks they are substandard offensively.

Can the Steelers unlock the Browns defense which has inspired all of their four wins? The Browns must look after the ball and let their defense operate against the Steelers substandard offensive line. Josh Gordon will trouble the Steelers secondary but can the Browns have success elsewhere? In a game where points and yards may be hard to come by we see Ben Roethlisberger’s experience in such games being the deciding factor.

ATPF PredictionIn a low scoring game the Steelers win by three.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost their unbeaten record in Denver but not much else. They are still virtually assured of a playoff spot and could easily reverse things at home against the Broncos in a few weeks time. The best teams don’t get too down on themselves after defeats and the Chiefs mustn’t either, they need to avoid a slip up which would really give the Broncos the initiative. San Diego are 0-3 since their bye and a promising bounce back year is in danger of falling apart.

The Chiefs lost by ten in Denver but could have gone much closer. A turnover in Bronco territory was particularly costly. The Chiefs offense remains hugely reliant on running back Jamaal Charles who will likely be an all-pro this year but with so many dynamic passers in the league there remain doubts as to whether Alex Smith and the Chiefs conservative passing attack has what it takes to go take them deep into the playoffs. Their defense is as good as any in the league and with two dominant pass rushers and playmakers scattered throughout the unit they can wreak havoc on all but the best offenses.

San Diego seem to have gotten over conservative offensively all of a sudden and they managed just one touchdown in Miami, they were too cautious the week before when hosting the Broncos too. Caution against this Chiefs defense isn’t necessarily a bad thing but while the Chargers defense has improved as the year has gone on they aren’t a unit who can win you a game. Mike McCoy and his staff need to let Phil Rivers turn it loose occasionally, he has proven his ability to make big plays this year.

Defeat last week has seen a few questions asked in Kansas City but they are exceptional at home and their dominant defense will hope to force Phil Rivers into taking some chances. Jamaal Charles’ speed is always a factor and this could be a game for him to cause havoc.

ATPF PredictionKansas City get back to winning ways, earn a ten point victory.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins

Few teams are hotter right now than Ron Rivera’s Panthers; they have won their last six and beaten supposed Superbowl contenders in their last two, the Panthers now into fit that category themselves. Miami are a streaky team, in their last three they have beaten Cincinnati and San Diego but sandwiched between was a loss to Tampa Bay. At 5-5 they are still in with a chance in the wide open second wildcard race in the AFC.

The Dolphins inconsistency is largely blamed on Ryan Tannehill. The sophomore quarterback has supreme talent but is still raw and inexperienced so he does make mistakes and is slow to go through his progressions. In Tannehill’s defence his offensive line has been pretty poor, big name recruit Mike Wallace has done little and the Dolphins lack a consistent running game. Defensively the Dolphins were expected to be a useful unit but again have been inconsistent. Cameron Wake is an outstanding player but he is the only reliable pass rusher on the roster and when he is doubled team’s are often afforded the time to target a suspect secondary.

Carolina have become one of the best defenses in football this year. They have tremendous depth and talent upfront and have one of the league’s best young defenders in linebacker Luke Kuechly. No team has scored three touchdowns against them this year and in their six game win streak only New England this past Monday Night have even managed two in a game. They are effective rather than spectacular offensively, the scheme is usually based around a large dose of their running game but against the Patriots the mercurial Cam Newton did the damage. Newton is playing smart football and can do things others simply can’t with his extraordinary sixe and athletic ability. He could be more accurate on short passing but that will come and he could break out next year, if he does, watch out.

With Ryan Tannehill’s penchant for holding onto the ball a bit too long the Panthers aggressive front will hope to rack up the sacks here. This is not a good matchup at all for the Dolphins 31st ranked offense and Newton shouldn’t need to perform any heroics to keep the Panthers bandwagon rolling.

ATPF PredictionCarolina take their streak to seven with a two touchdown win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions

There is no stopping Tampa Bay now, they have won their last two games. Detroit suffered a disappointing loss in Pittsburgh to let Chicago take the lead in the topsy-turvy battle for the NFC North.

The Buccaneers defense was in Matt Ryan’s face all day long on Sunday, they forced three turnovers and also sacked Ryan three times. With second season runner Bobby Rainey having a huge day rookie quarterback Matt Glennon wasn’t under pressure and had a terrific day completing 20 of 23 passes. It was easily the best performance by a Tampa Bay quarterback this year and Glennon is really doing his best to prove he is worthy of the long term starting gig.

The Lions defense always gives opponents a chance and at Heinz field Ben Roethlisberger threw four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Lions rank 25th in total defense so it’s just as well they have one of the most dynamic offenses in football. That offense of course centres around three superstars, quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson and running back Reggie Bush. Few teams can hold that trio and they are even more effective in conditioned domes such as their home Ford Field where Bush’s quick cut ability causes teams fits.

The Buccaneers are not the pushovers they seemed a few weeks ago but if they can’t contain the Lions high octane offense Mike Glennon will have to try and compete and that is a tall order even for seasoned veterans. We see Tampa scoring points but ultimately not enough.

ATPF PredictionLions win by around ten.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been hamstrung by Aaron Rodgers injury. In the two and three quarter games he’s missed they have gone 0-3 and are now going to need to be virtually perfect if they are to make the playoffs. Rodgers is either unsure himself or being coy about his own status but realistically it’s hard to see him playing here. The Vikings are 2-8 and suffered another heavy defeat in Seattle last week.

Few teams rely on their quarterback more than Green Bay and of course Aaron Rodgers is amongst the league’s best. Scott Tolzien actually wasn’t that bad against the Giants but he is filling giant size shoes. The Packers defense must take some responsibility, they have given up coincidentally 27 points in all three Rodgers-less games but it’s their inability to force turnovers that is most notable. Tolzien could sure benefit from a few short fields or better still the defense could find the end zone once in a while, you have to go back nine weeks to game three against the Bengals to find the last time the Packers forced more than one turnover in a game.

Minnesota have been even worse than their rivals defensively, they rank 30th in the league averaging nearly 400 yards a game conceded and have given up 38 touchdowns. A pedestrian pass rush and porous secondary has seen teams march straight through them routinely. Offensively of course their world revolves around Adrian Peterson but with poor quarterback play and no playmaker like Percy Harvin teams are routinely run blitzing and keeping their strong safety in the box. Quarterback Christian Ponder, the incumbent starter makes poor decisions and is always capable of a big mistake at the most inopportune time.

This game is a hard one to call now. Two modest, mistake prone quarterbacks facing defenses which could just be the antidote to their problems. Adrian Peterson could be the difference and the Packers have to stop him taking over the game if they are going to win. We believe Green Bay at home, as the better coached, smarter team can find a way to get a win which they are so desperate for.

ATPF PredictionPackers edge to a win by just a field goal.

Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams

Plenty of teams around the league have been without starting quarterbacks of late and these two are no different. The Rams lost Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL, they have gone 1-2 under backup Kellen Clemens, with their season merely an obituary yet to be written they annihilated the high flying Colts prior to their bye last week. The Bears looked third favourites in the wide open NFC North when Jay Cutler went down but they have won both games Josh McCown has started. They are now back infront and will get Cutler back soon so winning here would make them undisputed favourites.

McCown has benefited from a strong supporting cast in Cutler’s absence, running back Matt Forte is severely underrated, his consistency and versatility makes him a top 5 back in our book. Giant receivers Brandon Marshall and the emerging Alshon Jeffery are one of the league’s best starting duos and if talented tight end Martellus Bennett can produce like he did in their overtime win last week they will be even better going forward. This isn’t a great Bears defense and injuries have been a factor but they all know what the ball looks like and make more than their fair share of big plays.

The Rams incomprehendable demolition job on the Colts aside things have been tough for Jeff Fisher’s team. The pressure they put on themselves to compete with the mighty Seahawks and 49ers did not help. Realistically they are a long way short of their chief NFC West rivals and have even fell behind the supposedly rebuilding Cardinals. First round rookie receiver Tavon Austin, a Percy Harvin kind of playmaker was hearing the word bust whispered until he electrified his team in that win over the Colts. Running back Zac Stacy is another emerging talent as the Rams look to next year with their largely young roster. Their defense has underperformed on the whole but has been better of late and was too much for the Colts.

There are no easy games when you’re without your starting quarterback and this is a potential banana skin for the Bears. St.Louis’s 19th ranked defense has way more talent than that ranking suggests and while the Bears came through an emotional and mentally draining war against the Ravens the Rams were resting up and no doubt feeling pretty good about things after their week 10 win. If Kellen Clemens can look after the ball against this turnover hungry Bears defense the Rams will score points and Tavon Austin will hope to build on his breakout game. This game is setup for the upset and it could be huge for the Bears.

ATPF PredictionThe Rams score the upset, outlast the tired Bears by a field goal.

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens

The Jekyll and Hyde Jets were dismal in a spanking against the Bills last week. The Ravens meanwhile saw their slim hopes of making the playoffs all but extinguished in a weather delayed mud bath in Chicago.

The Ravens were expected to struggle after seeing their Superbowl roster torn apart by injuries, departures and retirements but things have been even worse than most predicted. At 4-6 they will have to be near perfect to make the playoffs now but they offer no encouragement that they could go on a winning streak. A minus five turnover ratio and thirtieth ranked offense have both been tough to overcome for their sound if not elitely talented defense. Running back Ray Rice is finally becoming a factor but Joe Flacco only has one legitimate receiver to throw too and that will surely be addressed sooner rather than later in the 2014 draft.

The Jets have had to ride bumps in the road with rookie quarterback Geno Smith under center. Rex Ryan’s teams have always been built to lead; control and force errors so when they get behind things get tough. Against the Bills Smith imploded into an avalanche of errors as he attempted to carry the team, he is simply not able to do so at this early stage of his career. The Jets defense is ranked eighth in the NFL but struggled with a heavy dose of deep passes from E.J. Manuel in Buffalo.

It’s hard to look beyond turnovers as the key here with two teams who both have had a major problem with them. Both teams are better defensively than offensively and neither has a great deal of receiving talent to target but we prefer Joe Flacco to Geno Smith if the game is close late on so we favour the Ravens in a game they simply have to win.

ATPF PredictionBaltimore prevail by a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Two of the worst teams in the league battle it out here. The 1-9 Jaguars saw usual service resumed after their week ten win when soundly beaten by the Cardinals last week. Houston continued their streak of losing when we pick them to win by failing to punch it in as time expired against the lowly Raiders.

Things seem to get worse by the week for Houston, each week they seem to play a worse team and each time they narrowly fail. The good or bad news for them is they have the league’s worst team at home here. Their offense is a mess, running back Arian Foster is on IR, quarterback Matt Schaub was benched but returned in the fourth quarter last week only to fail with a game deciding throw in the red zone and end up arguing with star receiver Andre Johnson on the sidelines. Schaub’s career in Houston is surely coming to an end. The Texans defense astoundingly still ranks as the league’s best but that has been Fools Gold, an inability to create turnovers or make red zone stands has made their ranking unimportant.

The Jags are the worst and least talented team in the league. A law of averages kind of win in week ten at least saved them from the indignity of a winless season but it’s hard to see where another win will come from. Their league worst offense has managed just thirteen touchdowns through ten games and has lost its best player to an indefinite suspension, just their luck. Only three teams have given up more yards so things are no better on the other side of the ball in Jacksonville. This roster needs decimating and needs heavy investment in free agency and a good draft starting with finding a true franchise quarterback in the offseason.

The records of these teams suggest this one will be close while the stats suggest a complete hammering for Jacksonville. We expect something in between with the league’s best (at least statistically speaking) defense facing the league’s worst (in every manner)  offense.

ATPF Prediction Texans win this game by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals

The Colts have been poor three times straight but have won two of those three and comebacks are their signature, the AFC South is all but safe but they will be looking to improve ahead of the playoffs. The Cardinals have overachieved to still be in the playoff hunt in late November. They will probably have to win four of their last six to manage the unlikely feat so a home game here is one they know they have to win.

Luckily for the Cards they are far better at home so it is entirely possible, a 4-1 home record and three game winning streak give them plenty to be optimistic about. Quarterback Carson Palmer has cut down on his turnovers of late and in running back Andre Ellington and receiver Michael Floyd they have found a couple of emerging stars to take the burden off Larry Fitzgerald to be the offense. Defensively they are excellent and have climbed into the top ten overall now. In linebacker Daryl Washington and shutdown corner Pat Peterson they have two of the league’s best defenders and both are still in the early stages of what could be glittering careers. Peterson has a bit of the Deion Sanders about him and we think he could be a top ten wide receiver if he moved over to the offense.

The Colts are the only team to beat the Colts and also beat San Francisco yet lost by thirty to St.Louis a fortnight ago and have needed two big comebacks either side of that game to beat moderate teams. Second year quarterback Andrew Luck has been cautious rather than spectacular but that has kept turnovers to a minimum (he has just six interceptions). Luck himself is an underrated runner and is a particular threat in the redzone and the Colts really value establishing the run yet Trent Richardson who they gave up a first round pick for has barely been a factor. Indianapolis defense gives up yards but lives for big plays and they have fifteen turnovers so far. It is clear that the value of turnovers is huge to this team.

The Colts are seen as the better team by many here due to their high profile wins and much vaunted young quarterback but the Cards are considerably better than the Colts defensively and at home on a hot streak we expect them to have too much for Indianapolis.

ATPF PredictionFew win in Arizona; the Cards beat the Colts by a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders

The second wildcard spot is open to a lot of average teams in the AFC. Both of these teams are mathematically still in the race although neither look anywhere near good enough to make the playoffs. The Raiders got a crucial win over the lowly Texans last week but the Titans slide continued, they have won just one of their last six games.

Of course the loss of starting quarterback Jake Locker has hurt the Titans but he was no Peyton Manning so the problems in Tennessee are much deeper than just that. Running back Chris Johnson has good games and he has bad games but considerably more of the latter. He looked really good in the first half against Indianapolis but got just three carries in the second half as the Colts came back to win so play calling can also be questioned. The Titans defense has generally been quite stout after being absolutely awful in 2012 but they are not stifling enough to cope when the offense starts turning the ball over, something the Titans didn’t do early in the season but have done of late.

The Raiders gave undrafted rookie Matt McGloin the start in Houston having seen enough or Terrelle Pryor’s passing in recent games. McGloin was outstanding, throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. He showed poise in the pocket and put some real nice touch on a couple of difficult throws, it will be interesting to see him again. The Raiders are still missing talented but perennially injured runner Darren McFadden but Rashad Jennings had a long touchdown from a direct snap and was generally good against Houston. The Raiders defense had been pretty good until getting blown out against the Eagles three weeks ago. They lack any blue chip players but at least have found blue collar guys after a decade of half heartedness.

The Titans are a team really struggling right now. They had a chance last week but blew it and the week before lost to the 1-9 Jaguars so confidence must be at rock bottom. The coliseum is a difficult place to go, it will be loud, it will be chaotic and it looks just the kind of place the Titans won’t fancy going right now. If Matt McGloin can perform similarly to last week the Raiders are favourites here and we see them adding to Tennessee’s misery.

ATPF PredictionRaiders win by ten.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

As the Cowboys have faltered and stuttered to 5-5 the Giants have come from nowhere to win four straight and claw their way back into the NFC East race.

Key to the Giants turnaround has been there defense stepping up to the standards we have come to expect. Perry Fewell’s scheme revolves around getting pressure on the quarterback with his front four and letting the others sit in coverage. Jason-Pierre Paul and Justin Tuck are both warming up after slow starts and Cullen Jenkins, a flop in Philadelphia is recapturing his form inside so the line are again becoming highly disruptive. Jon Beason has hugely improved this defense with his ability to cover, tackle and cover ground in the centre of the field also. Offensively Eli Manning’s down season has improved slightly but he still has five picks more than touchdown passes. Bruising runners Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hillis can wear down a defense and will fancy this matchup against a battered defense.

Dallas’ defense is without their leader Sean Lee but DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Wilcox and defensive MVP candidate Jason Hatcher will all be back. The Cowboys defense is the league’s worst, averaging 430 yards per game conceded. They forced five turnovers from the Giants in week one but when the turnovers haven’t come they have been torched. The Broncos, Saints and Lions in particular have made hay against them. Offensively the usually gung ho Cowboys have been strangely cautious. It has meant less turnovers but also less big plays and the absence of a run game has seen Dallas’ usually explosive offense look pretty middle of the road. If the Cowboys let Tony Romo turn it loose Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten are a quintet that could cause the Giants a lot of problems but so far he hasn’t been given such orders.

The Cowboys won the first meeting but the Giants have improved dramatically since and the Cowboys defense has fallen apart. Eli Manning has traditionally had a field day against the Cowboys and will be keen to put that week one game behind him. The Giants pass rush can get in Romo’s face and force sacks and incompletions so all bodes well for New York here.

ATPF PredictionThe Giants win a fifth straight, beat Dallas by a touchdown.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

The Broncos are now atop the AFC after their defeat of Kansas City last week while the Patriots lost a close one and a controversial one in Carolina; they will win the AFC East again but don’t look as strong as teams of their recent past.

New England’s defense kept them afloat when their offense was bogged down by injuries but has struggled in recent weeks. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork’s injury has hit particularly hard with the Patriots now struggling against the run and to collapse the pocket on passing plays. Their offense however sparked into life when scoring 55 against the Steelers two games back. In Carolina, against arguably the best defense around on current form the Patriots managed an impressive 396 yards of offense but ultimately it wasn’t enough. Rob Gronkowski is looking back to full strength at last and he is one of the most dangerous weapons in football as he again showed when carrying three Panthers into the end zone last week.

The Broncos won reasonably comfortably in the end against the Chiefs. They will be without Wes Welker against their old team here and Julius Thomas is questionable also. In fact Peyton Manning is also listed as questionable but his bad ankles have been a problem for weeks, the Broncos will strap them several times over and Manning will be good to go. Denver’s offense is the best in the league by some way and even without Welker they still have plenty of weapons and a reliable pair of running backs in Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. The Broncos defense was toiling heading into their bye week but after a week to regroup and with star pass rusher Von Miller back they are now looking a little stronger, they need only make a few stands to do enough for their near unstoppable offense.

Tom Brady Peyton Manning battles have always been games to saviour and we should be treated to another cracker here. We prefer the Broncos who have more secure running backs if not more talented ones and have more playmakers in the passing game than New England. The Patriots lost to Carolina and Cincinnati and should have been finished off by the Saints so the jury is still out on their ability to beat top teams.

ATPF PredictionA great game to watch but the Broncos outlast the Patriots, win by a touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins

Back to back defeats have seen the 49ers chance of retaining the NFC West virtually disappear while the Redskins chance of defending their NFC East title also look to have slipped away. The 49ers are still in a good position to get a wildcard berth but need to get back to winning ways pretty soon, the Redskins playoff hopes are over.

Narrow defeats to Carolina and New Orleans give an indication as to where San Francisco stand. They are a very good team, a team who will compete against anyone but who are vulnerable against elite teams. Their offense got a huge shot in the arm late last year when Colin Kaepernick took over at quarterback and tore teams apart with his dynamic running but this year teams have been wiser to it and are willing to take their chances against his arm. Frank Gore and co are still a very tough rushing attack but there is nobody on this team creating big, game changing plays when they really need them. Defensively of course they still rate near the top and nobody has scored thirty against them through ten games.

Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III implied blame on his head coach Mike Shanahan last week which has only fanned the flames for the media searching for blame. Truly the blame should be pointed at a few different doors. The Redskins defense has been a bigger problem than the offense, seven of their ten opponents have scored thirty or more and they lost two of the three where opponents didn’t manage thirty. They rank first in the league in rushing behind the irrepressible Alfred Morris and occasional takeoffs from RG3 but whether due to a lack of targets or lack of faith in RG3 they do at times seem too keen to keep pounding the run rather than letting Griffin turn it loose.

The 49ers lost little in their two recent defeats, both were close. The key stat here is that they haven’t given up thirty once while Washington have done seven times, that doesn’t bode well for the home team.

ATPF PredictionSan Francisco get back on track, prevail by just a field goal.

 

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Author: Dave

I have been an NFL fan since my first visit to the USA where I stayed in both Dallas and Houston. I have also visited New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Kentucky. I was hooked the first time I watched a Cowboys game whilst out there although I must confess I had little idea what was going on! Like a lot of British fans I just kept picking more and more up and now follow the NFL news daily and hopefully have a decent level of knowledge myself! I am a Cowboys fan for my sins, I loved the twin cities of Dallas-Fort Worth in my time there and the iconic Cowboys were of instant appeal. First and foremost however I'm a football fan and all my articles will be written impartially. I hope you enjoy our site, feel free to leave us your comments and opinions.

27 thoughts on “ATPF Preview Week 12

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