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ATPF Preview Week 9

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Week nine means we are already at the halfway point of the regular season, hard to believe. After our season high 11-2 record in week 8 we are 67-37 on the season, a 64% strike rate. There is no time for reflection in the NFL however, week nine is upon us and just like every other week it has some crucial games, some intriguing ones and a couple of apparent mismatches.

 Again we have a thirteen game slate this week, the Cardinals, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Giants and 49ers have their byes. The 49ers and Jaguars will spend their byes reflecting on their London trip this past weekend. San Francisco are a team steadily improving and unsurprisingly they had way, way too much for the hapless, winless Jaguars. Jacksonville gave it their all on and off the field in London, they did some great PR work and won plenty of fans but they were completely outclassed and look increasingly capable of going 0-16. The Broncos looked in danger of a second straight loss for a while before coming on strongly late to beat the Redskins. The Lions also remain on track for the playoffs, an incredible last minute drive led by Matthew Stafford saw them by the Cowboys, they aren’t going to give the NFC North to Green Bay or Chicago without a fight. Arizona’s victory over the Falcons keeps their season alive, 4-4 at this point is probably slightly better than they would have expected. The Giants are 2-6 but having won their last two are only two behind in the NFC East, 6-2 after their bye may be enough to make the playoffs yet.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins

The Bengals demolished the Jets a week ago to improve to 6-2, it was their fourth straight win and as the best teams do they are getting stronger as the season goes on. The Dolphins conversely have lost four straight after a 3-0 start generated some excitement in Miami.

The Dolphins have a variety of problems bogging them down at the minute. Their misfiring offense is yet to score thirty points in any game this season and averages just 311 yards per game, fifth worst in the league. Receiver Mike Wallace, their big money off season signing has been non-existent, one touchdown and under 400 yards through seven games is about what you’d expect of a number four receiver. Ryan Tannehill started promisingly but has struggled as the season has gone on and his protection hasn’t helped. The Dolphins need to have more faith in running the ball, their per attempt average warrants more carries for their running backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. Defensively the Dolphins have been somewhere been adequate and moderate, a competitive unit but not one good enough to carry the team.

Cincinnati steamrollered the Jets behind an inspired Andy Dalton who threw five touchdowns, four to little known Marvin Jones who had just four career touchdowns coming in but torched a usually stingy defense. With Dalton resurgent and surrounded by one of the league’s most talented group of receivers the Bengals rank seventh in passing and ninth in total offense. Their defense may be even stronger, they rank eighth in yards allowed, have 22 sacks and have allowed just 15 touchdowns in eight games.

All the signs point to the Bengals who have won their last four and won by 40 last week, the Dolphins are low on confidence and haven’t won since September. Cincinnati’s deadly front four should have plenty of joy against a leaky offensive line and quarterback who holds onto the ball too long but the Bengals offense should have too many weapons for Miami to contain.

ATPF PredictionBengals keep the momentum going, win by ten.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

The Falcons, one of the league’s most disappointing teams were finally sunk once and for all last week with their defense offering no resistance to the paltry offense of the Cardinals. The Panthers have a winning record thanks to beating the lowly Bucs last Thursday night and have fans dreaming of a return to the playoffs.  

Key to the Panthers improvement has been their defense, the third best in the league and a unit which has allowed just eight touchdowns in seven games; lights out football. Offensively the Panthers still lack targets beyond Steve Smith and Greg Olsen but Cam Newton is playing smarter football and the Panthers are tough to get off the field, they should fancy their matchup here.

Atlanta could only muster one touchdown in Arizona a week ago, they ran for just 27 yards and even ‘Matty Ice’ melted in the desert, Ryan threw four interceptions. Their defense, one of the league’s least effective couldn’t get any pressure on Carson Palmer despite the Cardinals offensive line’s woes. Atlanta have forced just six turnovers so far this season and are allowing over 360 yards per game at nearly six yards per play.

The Panthers have a great chance to get to 5-3 here against their toiling NFC South rivals. The Falcons offensive struggles in Arizona don’t bode well for a duel with a unit allowing just one touchdown per game and their own defense is playing worse by the week.

ATPF PredictionCarolina frustrate Atlanta and end up two touchdowns to the good.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys

The Vikings false dawn in Wembley remains their lone success and their quarterback carousel continues to turn. Dallas’ inability to win the close ones remains their downfall, their defense couldn’t survive just one minute to win in Detroit as Calvin Johnson had a career day.

The Vikings went with Christian Ponder at quarterback last week, this week they apparently won’t disclose their starter between Ponder and Josh Freeman until game time, Dallas probably won’t even notice who is under center considering 90% of their defensive game plan will surely revolve around stopping Adrian Peterson. The Vikings defense is as poor as their offense, only two teams are allowing more than their 401 yards per game and they gave up 44 points at home last week.

The Cowboys have twice lost by a single point and once by three points so are probably a little better than their 4-4 record suggests. Their home record is 3-1 and they scored 48 in the lone defeat, in fact they have scored over thirty in all four home matches. The defense made the headlines for giving up over 600 yards in Detroit, they now rank dead last in yards allowed. The nineteen turnovers they have forced are the only positive but with DeMarcus Ware, Morris Claiborne and J.J. Wilcox all again likely to be out this unit is very weak. Tony Romo is playing smart football and has eighteen touchdowns to five picks, he has been more conservative on the road but generally opens up at home which doesn’t bode well for Minnesota.

The Cowboys could so easily have six or seven wins to their name; they are strong at home and look like being far too good for the Vikings in this one. The Vikings 27th ranked passing game offers Monte Kiffin’s beleaguered unit some respite but Tony Romo and co could have a field day against the Vikings sorry defense.

ATPF PredictionCowboys score big at home again, win by around twenty.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets

The Jets got a rude awakening at the hands of the talented Bengals last week; a 49-9 loss showed how far behind the AFC powerhouses they still are. The Saints comfortably beat the Jets AFC East rivals Buffalo to advance to 6-1, homefield advantage remains their top priority and last time they had it they won the Superbowl.

New Orleans remain dynamic offensively and will be as long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are involved but the transformation from the disappointing 2012 campaign has been on the other side of the ball. Rob Ryan hasn’t been particularly effective in any of his previous stops as defensive coordinator but his 3-4 press man scheme has breathed new life into this unit and Ryan and Payton form an inspirational team, both are the sort of coach who players enjoy playing for.

The Jets offense has been up and down but with a run first approach and a rookie quarterback learning as he goes along they are not built to come from behind so it was no surprise that things got out of hand last week against the Bengals. Rex Ryan like his brother has his defense playing pretty well but will not have been happy with last week’s showing; nevertheless they are still sixth in yards allowed and have been key to the team’s four wins so far. Offensively they have moved the ball better than expected but Smith’s 13 interceptions have hurt them.

Even in New York the Saints look to be strong favourites. They won’t have things all their own way against this defense but Drew Brees will find ways to move the ball and score points and the Saints should be able to force errors from Smith to turn the screw.

ATPF PredictionSaints win this one by two scores.

Tennessee Titans @ St. Louis Rams

The Titans at 3-4 desperately need to start winning games if they are to get into the playoff race. The Rams also have three wins but at 3-5 and without their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season they are in damage limitation mood.

Life beyond Bradford looked bleak last week as Kellen Clemens threw two picks and completed less than half of his passes, the Rams didn’t score a touchdown. Their defense which has been a disappointment on the most part this season did play well last week and kept them within touching distance of the mighty Seahawks but with the offense so ineffective it was to no avail. They will need more of the same from the defense to give them hope going forward because the offense doesn’t look like scoring many points with Clemens under center.

The Titans have their starting quarterback Jake Locker back after injury, he played pretty well in San Francisco before last week’s bye but he needs to throw more completions and sometimes just trust receivers to make plays for him. Running back Chris Johnson the supposed big play threat has been ineffective and his 2000 yard season is now a distant memory. Tennessee were a mess defensively last year but have been pretty sound this year, they are in the top half of most statistics and should fancy this matchup.

The Rams even at home won’t be fancied in many games from now to the end of the season and this one is no different. Tennessee are just a middle of the road team but their defense should cause St. Louis plenty of problems and their offense can do just enough to see them home.

ATPF PredictionThis could be a very low scoring affair; the Titans can edge it by a field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs have offered both the Texans and Browns the chance to gain huge upsets in the last two weeks but with neither having strong offenses KC remain unbeaten. The Bills like the aforementioned duo are far from dynamic offensively so Andy Reid’s team will fully expect to remain perfect.

The Chiefs turnaround has seen them play stout but aggressive defense and conservative offense with likely all pro running back Jamaal Charles sprinkling in enough magic to keep the scorers busy. In many ways this Chiefs team is a throwback to good teams of the past, their 5th ranked defense do a lot of the heavy lifting  while the offense control the clock with a heavy dose of running and just enough plays in the passing game to keep the defense honest. We are still in the dark as to how the Chiefs will stand up against first and foremost the Broncos and also the Bengals, Patriots, Colts or any of the other strong AFC teams in the playoffs but at least it looks certain they will have at least one game at home.

Expectations in Buffalo are never too high so a 3-5 record isn’t disastrous but with E.J. Manuel and C.J. Spiller missing for the last few games the Bills have been sorely lacking an offensive spark. Both have a chance this week but Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson and Thad Lewis are all nursing injuries of their own so it seems sure that this unit will be missing players again on Sunday. The Bills defense is 26th in yards allowed and was torched by Drew Brees and the Saints last week, Brees threw five touchdown passes and completed more than two thirds of his passes against the Bills shoddy secondary.

The Chiefs seem to face middle of the road teams every week and they always win. Buffalo’s modest and injury plagued offense and woeful defense offers little encouragement that they will be the ones to break the Chiefs streak so expect the Chiefs unrelenting march to continue.

ATPF PredictionChiefs are too good on both sides of the ball, they win by ten plus.

San Diego Chargers @ Washington Redskins

The Redskins were threatening to give the Broncos a run for their money until they imploded and committed five turnovers last week. The loss leaves Mike Shanahan’s men at 2-5 and struggling to retain their NFC East title. San Diego has their bye last week and at 4-3 should be refreshed and ready to make a serious push for a wildcard spot even in the brutal AFC West.

Quarterback Phil Rivers renaissance has been the story in San Diego, the veteran has been somewhere near his best after a couple of season in the wilderness at the back end of former head coach Norv Turner’s reign. The Chargers defense was heavily retooled in the Spring and really struggled early on but in their last two games the Chargers have conceded just five field goals and no touchdowns, if such form continues into the second half of the year San Diego will be formidable opponents.

Washington have a ton of problems, defensively they can’t stop anyone; teams are averaging nearly 400 yards per game against them. Offensively Griffin is suffering a major sophomore slump after his rookie of the year campaign of 2012, his serious injury has seemingly left him too far behind in preparation and he is nothing like the explosive runner we saw last year. Alfred Morris is still running hard and has the Redskins sixth in rushing yards but he hasn’t found the end zone as much as he would like to. The Redskins remain a top ten offense in yards and scoring but consistency is an issue.

FedEx Field is a tough place to win but the Chargers have the capacity to do it. Rivers vertical passing should cause the Redskins secondary plenty of problems and the Chargers improving defense can have more success providing they can keep Alfred Morris from getting big chunks on first and second down.

ATPF PredictionThe Chargers make a few more defensive stands than the Redskins here and that sees them to a one score success in an entertaining encounter.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders

The Eagles are really struggling right now. Their supposedly high powered offense is out of gas and has scored just ten points in the last two games combined. Considering the rivals there were Dallas who boast the league’s worst defense and the Giants who were 1-6 coming in and you see the magnitude of the problem. Oakland are fighting hard and rode a 97-yard touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (longest ever by a quarterback) to stop the resurgent Steelers in their tracks last week, at 3-4 their season could still go one way or the other.

Philadelphia remarkably remain a top ten offense despite their last two performances but the soap opera at quarterback is proving difficult to overcome and all three lead actors commit too many turnovers. Chip Kelly has said that it is Nick Foles under center again this week; he played well off the bench in Tampa but was completely ineffective until leaving in the fourth quarter against the Cowboys the following week. Foles is probably the best pure passer of the Eagles trio but his lack of mobility shrinks Kelly’s playbook. The Eagles defense simply can’t overcome such offensive performances as the last two; only the Cowboys have surrendered more yards.

The Raiders defense is playing pretty well, actually very well when you consider that they have nine new starters on the unit. Pryor took the headlines but the defense were huge last week; allowing just one touchdown to Pittsburgh. Offensively Pryor has been the offense but Darren McFadden (remember him?) came to the party as the Raiders ran in three touchdowns against the Steelers and if he can come back to his best the Raiders could quickly climb the ladder from their current 26th place.

Chip Kelly has to prove that he can guide his team back to winning ways; it starts with the offense which has fallen apart behind a haze of injuries and turnovers but still boasts several playmakers. The Raiders are always tougher in the Coliseum and coming off a win there they will be confident coming in here. Their defense can pressurise Nick Foles and if the quarterback is under prepared after injury the noise levels will play a major factor. Pryor and McFadden can do plenty of damage to the Eagles and if they can limit turnovers the Raiders can again beat a more talented team.

ATPF PredictionRaiders pile the pressure on Philadelphia as they win by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks

One of the most obvious mismatches of the season so far, the 7-1 Seahawks look invincible in their deafening home stadium and the Buccaneers are winless and at times clueless.

All confidence is gone in Tampa and it seems head coach Greg Schiano has lost the team. Not many NFL head coaches are sacked mid season but the Glazers must be considering it. Schiano benched then cut ties with quarterback Josh Freeman but his replacement, rookie Mike Glennon has been little better and it’s hard to see Tampa not drafting a quarterback in the top five next May. The Bucs heavily invested in defense seems to have given up in recent weeks surely sick of watching their pitiful offense struggle.

Seattle put in a pretty ordinary performance in St. Louis and only their turnover thirsty defense saved them from embarrassment. Nevertheless at home they are a different beast, seventeen is the most points an opponent has scored at CenturyLink Field and it’s hard to see that changing here. Seattle have forced 21 turnovers and given up the second fewest yards so far, facing the league’s second worst offense will have them thinking shutout. Receiver Sidney Rice was lost for the season a week ago and Marshawn Lynch is questionable here also, Percy Harvin could make his long awaited debut but he is also questionable. Seattle’s offense was pretty average in St. Louis but at home they should fare better here.

ATPF Prediction Tampa Bay don’t score a touchdown, lose by more than twenty.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

With the Bengals running away with the AFC North the other three teams are scrapping to stay in wildcard contention. The Superbowl champions Baltimore at 3-4 know that any hopes of retaining their title will be gone if they lose to the 3-5 Browns.

After winning three straight the Browns have lost their last three but Detroit, Green Bay and Kansas was a tough stretch. A week ago the Browns played pretty well, getting within a touchdown of the unbeaten Chiefs. Jason Campbell is the third quarterback to start in Cleveland, you feel for Campbell who was having his best ever year in Oakland three years ago before getting injured and has never until now had a chance since. The veteran threw two touchdowns and no picks in the daunting Arrowhead Stadium but faces another tough defense here. Cleveland’s defense has been pretty tough also, they are top ten rated in most statistics and will fancy their chances against the predictable Ravens.

Baltimore suffered back to back defeats before being on bye last week. Their roster was hit hard after the Superbowl by key losses and they have really struggled. The offense minus the departed Anquan Boldin and injured Dennis Pitta has also had virtually nothing from the usually ultra dependable Ray Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. Receiver Torrey Smith is Flacco’s only decent weapon but teams have soon worked that out. The Raven’s defense which was uncharacteristically average in the regular season last year isn’t much better and is no longer a feared unit.

Both teams know their slim playoff hopes are gone if they lose this. Both defenses look stronger than their opposing offense so points will be at a premium and turnovers will be massive. At home with their defense playing so well we think the Browns can slay the Ravens.

ATPF PredictionThe Browns edge a low scorer by just a point or two.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

This matchup is normally a real headliner but with the Steelers at 2-5 well and truly out of the playoff race and the Patriots effectively rather than impressively heading to another AFC East title it won’t make many back pages this time around.

Pittsburgh had found hope with back to back wins but a crushing loss to the modest Raiders killed them off once and for all. Their offense was again pretty dire, they managed just one touchdown and under 300 yards of offense, they are in the bottom half of all the key stats at the halfway stage and Ben Roethlisberger has little chance behind a porous offensive line with so few weapons of note. The Steelers defense has been ok but not up to scratch in this city, allowing Terrelle Pryor to score a 97 yarder last week must have had Steelers fans cringing and too often this season they have given up big plays on the ground.

The Patriots recovered control of the AFC East after their loss to the Jets by beating Miami. Few teams have been harder hit by injuries than New England and just as they are getting receivers healthy they are losing defensive players, right tackle Sebastien Vollmer was lost for the season also last week as the Patriots doctors continue to work overtime. Tom Brady hasn’t had much to aim at but has been able to just do enough by and large this season but with Gronkowski back he needs to get back to old form to take the pressure off the ailing defense. New England hasn’t defended this well in a good few years but without Vince Wilfork and Aqib Talib, two of their best players they are sliding down the rankings and look vulnerable to both ground and air attacks now.

At home the Patriots remain hard to beat and their defense should fancy this matchup against a unit lacking weapons and poor in pass protection. Offensively Stevan Ridley could have success on the ground and Rob Gronkowski gives Dick LeBeau a huge headache to cover.

ATPF PredictionPatriots cruise to victory; ten points is the approximate margin.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

The Texans season has been disasterous but if they could beat their arch rivals at home it would at least give their fans something to cheer. The Colts look sure to win the AFC South and as the only team to beat the Broncos and Seahawks they will be a threat to all in the postseason.

Matt Schaub’s implosion and Arian Foster’s no show has seen the Texans offense turn into a disaster. Quite how you can rank eighth in yards but 30th in points scored is for Gary Kubiak to work out but the Texans should not be a 2-5 team, they are outgaining opponents by 115 yards per game! They still boast the NFL’s best defense which alone should guarantee a winning record but costly turnovers have crippled this team. Such is the talent level here however that the Texans are well capable of getting a few upsets in the second half of the season.

The Colts headline grabbing wins over the Broncos and Seahawks have been the highlights of a 5-2 season so far. Their two defeats to the Dolphins and Chargers show that this is a team still searching for the consistency which the elite teams boast. Andrew Luck, the future of the NFL for many has been steady rather than spectacular and it is a little surprising that the Colts rank 21st in passing.  The Colts defense is much improved this year and has been particularly good in forcing turnovers, they have thirteen, a plus seven ratio.

The Colts are favourites here but all of the stats say that this is much closer than some expect. The Texans at home appeal as our upset of the week.

ATPF PredictionHouston’s defense leads them to the upset, it will be close though.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

This vital Monday Night clash couldn’t come at a worse time for the Bears, quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Lance Briggs are both out leaving the offense and defense short on leadership and playmakers. The three way tussle for the NFC North could easily become a two horse race if the Packers hold serve at home and they haven’t been beaten since September.

Injuries certainly haven’t been kind to Green Bay either but as long as they have Aaron Rodgers they have a chance. Rodgers is getting better and better and could still enter the discussion about MVP by year’s end. Rookie Eddie Lacy has finally given the Packers a legitimate running threat and he looks the favourite at the moment for rookie of the year. A more balanced Green Bay rank second overall offensively but their defense is considerably better than top offensive team Denver’s.

Chicago got a head start in this division but are now behind the Packers and Lions and the Cutler injury in particularly looks like knocking them out of contention. They had their bye last week and must have spent most of it wondering how they gave up 45 to the lowly Redskins in a week seven defeat. The Bears defense up until that had been ok but this unit depends on turnovers and when they can’t get them they can become easy to attack, there will be few sniffs against Aaron Rodgers so this could be another long afternoon for the defense

If Cutler and Briggs were playing the Bears would have a chance, I’d still favour the Packers but they would have a chance. Without either winning at Lambeau Field would be a minor miracle.

ATPF PredictionThe Packers stamp their authority on the NFC North, win by twenty here.

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Author: Dave

I have been an NFL fan since my first visit to the USA where I stayed in both Dallas and Houston. I have also visited New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Kentucky. I was hooked the first time I watched a Cowboys game whilst out there although I must confess I had little idea what was going on! Like a lot of British fans I just kept picking more and more up and now follow the NFL news daily and hopefully have a decent level of knowledge myself! I am a Cowboys fan for my sins, I loved the twin cities of Dallas-Fort Worth in my time there and the iconic Cowboys were of instant appeal. First and foremost however I'm a football fan and all my articles will be written impartially. I hope you enjoy our site, feel free to leave us your comments and opinions.

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